New long-term climate scenarios demonstrate that Finland is positioned well to achieve carbon neutrality after 2040 and become carbon negative by mid-century. Reaching this goal requires strengthening both technologically and naturally produced carbon sinks. A report by VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, the Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), the Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), and the Geological Survey of Finland GTK also reveals that citizens and companies alike are highly committed to achieving climate targets.
Four different scenarios have been developed to support Finland’s long-term climate policy. These outline four diverging pathways on greenhouse gas emissions and carbon sinks.
“The results are not forecasts, but alternative future pathways. We wanted to test different actions and measures Finland could employ to achieve its long-term climate goals,” says Tiina Koljonen, Principal Scientist at VTT.
The scenarios focus on 2050. By that time emissions must be reduced by at least 90% relative to levels in 1990, per Finland’s Climate Act. Finland should also have achieved carbon negativity by that point, meaning that carbon sinks should exceed greenhouse gas emissions. According to Finland’s Climate Act, Finland should be carbon neutral by 2035 at the latest. The scenarios indicate that Finland can reach carbon neutrality after 2040 and carbon negativity by mid-century, but only if all emission sectors – industry, agriculture, energy, transport, and land use – contribute actively to the results. The land use sector faces significant challenges: predicting the factors that influence forest utilization and carbon sink development is difficult, and there are uncertainties related to the sector’s emission and sink estimates.
“The impact assessment of new climate and energy policies tells us that Finland cannot achieve carbon neutrality by 2035 with existing or the additional measures proposed by the government. However, carbon neutrality is very feasible in the long term. It requires political guidance, investment decisions within the next decade, and consistent efforts using both technical and natural carbon sinks,” Koljonen explains.
Read the full press release:
Further information:
Tiina Koljonen (alternative pathways to carbon neutrality, energy system and emissions development)
Principal Scientist, VTT
+358 50 359 9549, tiina.koljonen@vtt.fi
Tarja Silfver (agriculture and land use sector development)
Senior Researcher, Luke
+358 29 532 2555, tarja.silfver@luke.fi
Sampo Soimakallio (environmental impacts and public acceptance)
Principal Scientist, Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE)
+358 29 525 1803, sampo.soimakallio@syke.fi
